Prospects for the 2003 Superseries

As seen after Round 1, going into the Easter-Anzac week

Tania Robinson will have her work cut out to beat Rachel Smith. The hallmark of the PAPO member who first represented NZ at the World Champs as a 20-year-old in 1997 is her steadiness, her unflappability. Her record puts her in front of last year's classic champion Penny Kane, and last year's short champion Marquita Gelderman did not travel south and will run the W35 age class for event #3. Robinson, who has not competed as much locally since becoming a mother, will have to outdo Smith during the Easter-Anzac week AND contest the final round in the Wairarapa at Queens Birthday. Smith may not win all the remaining rounds, but she'll come close enough for the series.

A possible threat to Smith and Robinson seems to have been stifled by bureacracy. Not the NZ variety, but Swedish. Student Magdalena Danielsson who represented Sweden at the Junior World Champs, is studying at Victoria University for the first half of the year. But Swedish rules would disqualify her from the Swedish Championships if she took part in any other national champs, and her Swedish ranking is more important than the NZ Superseries! More's the pity, since attendance in the NZ Classic Champs of enough runners with a world ranking is necessary to calibrate the results, and for our girls to get ranking points. However Danielsson will be able to compete officially in the Anzac part of the week, which includes another world ranking event and events 6 and 7 in the Superseries.

Among the others, Penny Kane has the greatest form and the most runs on the board, with two seconds to Smith in Canterbury. The medical student from Otago hasn't competed internationally at elite level yet, but the selectors will be hoping that she is available for the World Champs in Switzerland in August. Jenni Adams has greater experience but hasn't been orienteering as fast as Kane and Smith recently.

If there are surprises they could come from the tough little Lara Prince, who hasn't been orienteering as long as the others, but has ability and physical background to catch up fast.

With bigger fields we can expect some battles from the men. Danish star and world-ranked No. 9 Carsten Jorgensen must be the favourite and has a win on the board already. Ranked first-equal in NZ, he will be untroubled by the other top rank, Bruce McLeod, who didn't attend the first round and hasn't entered the second. The winner of both classic and short national titles last year is concentrating on multisport, organising his EPIC endurance races, starting up his own surveying business, and perhaps his wedding to former NOS member Sasha Middleton in November.

Likewise, last year's Superseries winner Karl Dravitzki is a non-starter. The Taranaki orienteer is recovering from surgery for compartment syndrome, which has been interrupting his training for some years. His win last year "in spite of", like his outstanding run in the 1998 JWOC Relays, shows his potential, and his return to fitness will be watched with interest.

The other runner with a win already, and what a win it was, is Jason Markham. His NZ rank of 8, and 2002 Superseries placing of 22 reflect only his absence from the country last year. The win at Craigmore by an unbelievable 24 minutes shows that he has the ability to cope with extremely difficult navigation. His third place on the easier terrain at Tekapo shows that he is also very fit. (It is ironic that the simplified superseries points introduced this year to give faster results, gives no extra reward to Markham than a winner by one second!)

Can anyone slip past Markham to have a crack at Jorgensen? Well one runner did so at Tekapo, that's Rob Jessop. Jessop has 15 years' experience of international competition, interrupted in the late 90s when the selectors felt he was past his best. Well, he's back! A broken compass relegated him to fourth at event one, and in event two he beat all but the Dane. As the Toyota ad says, "you can't get much better than that; and I can say what I like!"

Of the others who showed their hand in Canterbury, watch Jamie Stewart, strong in the rocks and strong of opinion, but a lateral thinker about matters orienteering. And first-year senior James Bradshaw, whose surprise third place was his first major event placing as an elite.

But there are others who didn't make the trip south who will mix and match with Jessop, Stewart and Bradshaw, and Markham if not Jorgensen on occasion. Darren Ashmore, the NZ #3, whose new career as an Outdoor Pursuits Instructor is ideally suited to physical fitness. Mark Lawson, who would have won last year's Superseries under the new points system. Stu Barr, third in the series last year and the NZ Sprint-distance champion, will find two events of this length. And Brent Edwards, fourth last year.

There are some unknowns in the Easter-Anzac entry list. They include a Swede, two Danes and an American. They could be fast, they could be slow. Our guess is that claims on placings will more likely come from the runners above; with the occasional exception from an upcoming young orienteer (Greg Flynn, Ross Morrison); and the occasional exception from those with plenty of experience (Alistair Cory-Wright, Bill Edwards, Phil Wood).

For more information about the competitors, visit the competitor list.

As expected, the Southerly Storm has taken an early lead in the regional competition, but in the well-attended round 2 the Northern Knights look to be their equal. The Central Raiders don't have the numbers or the stars to be a threat.

Each team can count the scores of its top two women, and Robinson/Gelderman will probably match off against Smith and Kane. (Gelderman will run the superseries events after the classic championship is over.) Central will only have the points from Danielsson, and then only from events 6-9.

With the top four men counting, we have a case of Storm with the top couple of seeds (Jorgensen and Markham) but Knights with more depth (Jessop, Ashmore, Lawson and Brent Edwards) and a greater number of lower seeds. Raiders have less of both (Bradshaw, Barr, Bill Edwards). So it is possible that Storm's lead could survive the 5-event second round, forcing a showdown at the last two events at Queens Birthday weekend.

The events in the Wairarapa, a sprint-distance and a long distance race, could provide a thrilling finale to the series.

Jamie Stewart is a lateral thinker... Photo: Andrew McCarthy

Earlier Prospects

Going into Round 1, written 26 Mar 03.

Before the series began, written 7 Feb 03.